The buzz on babies: the fertility-depressing effect of the zika virus in Brazil

Abstract

he 2015-2016 Zika Epidemic and accompanying surge of newborns diagnosed with microcephaly and other developmental conditions sounded alarm bells both within and outside of Brazil. While research involving the science of the virus exploded in the months following the outbreak, knowledge on its downstream effects remains in its infancy. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the Zika virus on birth rates both during and after the epidemic. Specifically, we estimate ordinary least squares anddifference-in-difference models to assess the relationship between both the Zika virus and exposure to the Zika virus and birth rates in Brazil. The results of our analyses suggest that the Zika virus depressed the birth rate one full-term pregnancy period after the first peak in public concern with the virus and that the aftermath of the epidemic ushered in a “bouncing back” effect through which the country’s birth rate rebounded. These findings corroborate our purported logic that concern with the virus led many to learn of the intricate connection between the Zika virus and microcephaly and to, consequently, act to delay pregnancies until the epidemic subsided. We conclude with a discussion on the implications of our findings for public policy, development, and politics and outline avenues for future research.